Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 8.272777 9.500055 10.823335 12.353290 14.070438 15.935119 18.110127
2026-01-25 6.449367 8.102594 10.025254 12.414604 15.291465 18.630160 22.783636
2026-02-01 5.521535 7.353011 9.588979 12.497358 16.155503 20.577236 26.296318
2026-02-08 4.740986 6.659056 9.106314 12.422508 16.758366 22.189757 29.456266
2026-02-15 4.129962 6.081486 8.670047 12.305119 17.219464 23.566229 32.304168
2026-02-22 3.699090 5.686758 8.417700 12.377535 17.892532 25.209369 35.538845
2026-03-01 3.424523 5.473196 8.378213 12.712181 18.908730 27.325947 39.471267
2026-03-08 3.038373 5.051108 7.997462 12.520192 19.157338 28.385186 41.988400
2026-03-15 2.617475 4.529152 7.419085 11.983872 18.858798 28.639623 43.364831
2026-03-22 2.463866 4.408057 7.426625 12.308176 19.817816 30.703243 47.372875
2026-03-29 2.306050 4.262554 7.380148 12.537914 20.635911 32.585830 51.184509
2026-04-05 2.097412 4.010357 7.141355 12.443654 20.943455 33.715713 53.922163
2026-04-12 1.897862 3.757669 6.886567 12.312918 21.196725 34.792071 56.656619
2026-04-19 1.744068 3.570567 6.725056 12.320516 21.664667 36.211269 59.966531
2026-04-26 1.622655 3.429111 6.627227 12.421427 22.278308 37.869012 63.692589
2026-05-03 1.484573 3.241755 6.432800 12.340501 22.581239 39.041478 66.696949
2026-05-10 1.355731 3.058425 6.229370 12.226028 22.814011 40.100822 69.549736
2026-05-17 1.264935 2.941110 6.136078 12.297254 23.360038 41.680865 73.284928
2026-05-24 1.215394 2.903096 6.187144 12.630270 24.371551 44.059901 78.396761
2026-05-31 1.106330 2.728525 5.963116 12.439276 24.446718 44.876174 80.961699
2026-06-07 0.969810 2.479290 5.572312 11.906047 23.875872 44.569237 81.633601
2026-06-14 0.935962 2.454736 5.627505 12.228488 24.871644 46.974360 86.948933
2026-06-21 0.894655 2.408838 5.635154 12.456923 25.701751 49.119032 91.887349